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2 edition of descriptive validity of the stationarity assumption in time discounting found in the catalog.

descriptive validity of the stationarity assumption in time discounting

Herbert Moskowitz

descriptive validity of the stationarity assumption in time discounting

an exploratory study

by Herbert Moskowitz

  • 348 Want to read
  • 34 Currently reading

Published by Institute for Research in the Behavioral, Economic, and Management Sciences, Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Discount.

  • Edition Notes

    Statementby Herbert Moskowitz and John Hughes.
    SeriesInstitute for Research in the Behavioral, Economic, and Management Sciences. Paper no. 417
    ContributionsHughes, John, 1938- joint author.
    Classifications
    LC ClassificationsHD6483 .P8 no. 417, HG1651 .P8 no. 417
    The Physical Object
    Pagination12 p.
    Number of Pages12
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL5028484M
    LC Control Number73623445

    8 Covariance Stationary Time Series So far in the course we have looked at what we have been calling time series data sets. We need to make a series of assumptions about our data set in order to accomplish the aims of our analysis. We will do this in analogy with File Size: 74KB. Time Series: Introduction CLM Revisited: Time Series With autocorrelated data, we get dependent observations. Recall, t = t-1 + ut The independence assumption (A2’) is violated. The LLN and the CLT cannot be easily applied, in this context. We need new tools and definitions. We will introduce the concepts of stationarity and ergodicity. The.

    Chapter 2: Regression with Stationary Time Series 23 Thus it appears straightforward to extend our previous analysis to a time-series setting. However, the assumptions that are often reasonable when we draw plausibly independent observations from a cross-sectional sample frequently fail to hold for sequential, time-series Size: KB. Time series analysis is a statistical technique that deals with time series data, or trend analysis. Time series data means that data is in a series of particular time periods or intervals. The data is considered in three types: Time series data: A set of observations on the values that a variable takes at different times.

      A series is said to be stationary when the statistical properties (importantly mean, variance and auto-correlation from time series forecasting perspective) of the series is time invariant (i.e. don't vary with the time). In simpler terms, when observed across any regular time intervals they will remain the same. However, this is a more of an. The analysis of nonstationary time series using regression, correlation and cointegration. Słren Johansen Aug Abstract There are simple well-known conditions for the validity of regression and cor-relation as statistical tools. We analyse by examples the e⁄ect of nonstationarityFile Size: KB.


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Descriptive validity of the stationarity assumption in time discounting by Herbert Moskowitz Download PDF EPUB FB2

Stationarity A common assumption in many time series techniques is that the data are stationary. A stationary process has the property that the mean, variance and autocorrelation structure do not change over time. Stationarity can be defined in precise mathematical terms.

Stationarity is a common assumption in many time series techniques. Time series observed in the practise are sometimes non-stationary. In this case, they should be transformed to some stationary time series, if possible, and then be analysed.

Two types of stationarity exists: strong (or strict) and weak stationarity. Weak stationarity is su File Size: 85KB. Time Preference for Health: A Test of Stationarity versus Decreasing Timing Aversion Han Bleichrodt Erasmus University and Magnus Johannesson Stockholm School of Economics This paper provides a new and more robust test of the descriptive validity of the constant rate discounted utility model in medical decision analysis.

The. Time discounting is central to the valuation of future health and mortality risks in public sector allocative decision-making, particularly for environmental policies with delayed health impacts.

The aim of this paper is to test robustly stationarity, the key axiom of the Discounted Utility model, and to test whether the quasi‐hyperbolic or generalised hyperbolic model provides a better description of individual time preferences for health outcomes when stationarity is violated.

Empirical evidence on the validity of stationarity in medical decision making is negative, but the more general discounting model can be a good description (e.g. Cairns and van der Pol, Stationarity. Formal definition. var2 cov, t t tts s. Ey y yy.

The key point of this definition is that all of the first and second moments of yare the same for all t. Stationarity implies mean reversion: that the variable reverts toward a fixed mean after any shock. Kinds of Size: KB. In the distant past and absent time series techniques, OLS was adopted to summarize time series.

We have s of articles and s of textbooks written in an attempt to fix the failures resulting from the mis-application of OLS. The first step in time series modeling is to insure the series is or are stationary. DETRENDING A STOCHASTICALLY NON-STATIONARY SERIES Going back to our 2 characterizations of non-stationarity, the r.w.

with difdrift: y t = μ++ yt-1 + u t ((11)) and the trend-stationary process y t = α+ βt+u t (2) The two will require different treatments to induce second case is known as deterministic non-stationarity and what isFile Size: 1MB. Descriptive Assumptions Is an UNSTATED belief about the way the world WAS, IS, or WILL BECOME To LOCATE the REASON and ASK what the author is ASSUMING for the REASON to be TRUE in.

assumption, cannot be used as a pretest for their stationarity assumption. In view of this, existing Markov tests and ours are not directly related, but may be regarded as complementary to each other in terms of checking the validity of Markov and stationary assumptions, which are often maintained in practical time-series Size: KB.

A stochastic process is composed of a sequence of random variables ordered by time, and a time series is just a realization of such a process. The book that I'm reading says: "if we assume stationarity, then we can get expectation and variance from time series data".

I don't understand this. Outline 1 Preliminary 2 Lectures 3 De nitions Time series Description of a time series Stationarity 4 Stationary processes 5 Nonstationary processes The random-walk The random-walk with drift Trend stationarity 6 Economic meaning and examples Matthieu Stigler [email protected] Stationarity Novem 2 / 56File Size: KB.

Stationarity means that the statistical properties of a a time series (or rather the process generating it) do not change over time. Stationarity is important because many useful analytical tools and statistical tests and models rely on it.

As such, the ability to determine wether a time series is stationary is important. Stationarity in time series analysis.

A review of the concept and types of stationarity. This concept relies on the assumption that the stochastic process in question can be written as an autoregressive process of order p, and another will provide the same for transformation of non-stationarity time series data. important implications for the descriptive validity of EUT in non-monetary settings such as the elicitation of health Time discounting is a common assumption in economic literature.

We (re)explore the foundations of such time We prove that, assuming some weak stationarity assumptions, for any impatient preference order over the sure.

normative and descriptive validity of the he had proposed, the DU "Ode' was accepted in-stantly, not only as a valid normative standard for public policies (e.g., in cost- benefit analyses), but as a descriptively accurate representation of actual behav- ior.

A centra] assumption of the DUFile Size: 1MB. This paper provides a new and more robust test of the descriptive validity of the constant rate discounted utility model in medical decision analysis. The constant rate discounted utility model is compared with two competing theories, Harvey's () proportional discounting model and Loewenstein and Prelec's () hyperbolic discounting by: The experimental results provide support for decreasing timing aversion, the condition underlying the proportional and the hyperbolic discounting model, but they violate stationarity, the central condition of the constant rate discounted utility by: Observing that the conjunction of time consistency and time invariance implies stationarity, it is immediately clear from that the only way it is possible to achieve both time consistency and time invariance in social preferences is if all individuals' utilities are discounted with the same discount factor β, and the welfare weights w i (τ) are independent of τ: (11) W ˜ h τ (c) = ∑ t = 0 ∞ [∑ i w ˜ i U i Cited by: 4.

Stationarity and differencing. A stationary time series is one whose properties do not depend on the time at which the series is observed. 14 Thus, time series with trends, or with seasonality, are not stationary — the trend and seasonality will affect the value of the time series at different times.

On the other hand, a white noise series is stationary — it does not matter when you.Key assumptions include: linear utility over modest stakes; that respondents treat monetary rewards like consumption opportunities; no credit constraints over a year time horizon; credible payments; and time stationarity of utility.

Assuming exponential discounting, the IRR then corresponds to the respondent’s annual exponential discount rate. 6Cited by: 5.step in the analysis of time series data. Stationarity, which assumes that certain proba-bilistic properties of the time series model do not evolve over time, is a key assumption in time series analysis, and several excellent monographs focus on stationary modelling; see, e.g., Brillinger (), Brockwell and Davis () or Priestley ().Author: Tobias Kley, Philip Preuß, Piotr Fryzlewicz.